Date: October 03, 2024
Daily Technical Outlook
Metals and Energy
Bullions Index
The Benchmark index witnessed a Flat Opening on 1/10/24 and remain on higher side through out the day as lower level buying seen after last 3-days fall due to subdued dollar index and after middle east conflicts news in evening which makes bullion sage haven buying and make gold fresh all time high in near month future contract and which all resulted in index close near days high and well above over previous day close.
Now, Index has Support at 18850-700-600-450-18200, as long hold, more Upside expected towards 19200-19300 in short term. Other side only Sustain below 18200 seen again 17850-650/upto 17100-17000 in days to come.
Price is trading above short term 13-days SMA and RSI at 67 mark with upward slope indicates more room for Upside in the counter. Other side above zero line MACD seen buying support at every dip.
Metal Index
The Benchmark index seen a Minor Gap Up Opening on 1/10/24 and remain on higher side through out the day buying expected from top metal consumer China due to list of stimulus announce last week and once reopen after week long holiday added by subdued dollar index nd technical break our supports base metals complex and which all resulted in index close near days high and well above over previous day closing.
Now index has a Support at 17750-500-400-250-16900, as long hold, more Upside expected towards 18100-18200 in medium term. While on lower side only sustain below 16750-16400 seen 16100-16000 again in days to come.
Price is trading above short term 13 SMA while RSI at 68-marks with Upward slope indicates more room for Upside in the counter. Other side above zero line MACD indicates more buying supports at every dip in the counter.
Technical Levels
Commodity | Contract Month | CLOSE | S1 | S2 | R1 | R2 | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BULLIONS(Rs.) | |||||||
Gold M | Oct | 76024 | 75750 | 75500 | 76250 | 76500 | BULLISH |
Silver M | Nov. | 91325 | 90700 | 89900 | 92300 | 93200 | BULLISH |
Energy | |||||||
Crude Oil | Oct. | 5935 | 5820 | 5680 | 6000 | 6075 | BULLISH |
Natural Gas | Oct. | 243.50 | 235 | 228 | 248 | 253 | BULLISH |
BASEMETALS | |||||||
Copper | Oct. | 856.60 | 845.0 | 838 | 863 | 870 | BULLISH |
Zinc | Oct. | 284.45 | 281.50 | 279.0 | 285.50 | 288.0 | BULLISH |
Lead | Oct. | 184.30 | 182 | 180 | 187 | 190 | SIDEWAYS |
Nickel | Oct. | 1438.0 | 1350 | 1300 | 1450 | 1500 | SIDEWAYS |
Agri Morning Buzz
Commodity (NCDX/MCX) | Downside Target | Stop loss (for sell trade) | Sell below | Buy above | Stop loss (for Buy trade) | Upside Target |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GUARGUM (Oct) | 11200-11100 | 11550 | 11450 | 11750 | 11650 | 12000-12100 |
JEERAUNJHA (Oct) | 25700-25400 | 26300 | 26200 | 26700 | 26600 | 27200-27500 |
COCUDAKL (Dec) | 2920-2900 | 2980 | 2960 | 3015 | 3000 | 3050-3080 |
CASTOR (Oct) | 6600-6500 | 6900 | 6800 | 7000 | 6900 | 7200-7300 |
TURMERIC (Oct) | 13500-13400 | 13800 | 13700 | 14200 | 14100 | 14550-14700 |
Forex
Key Headlines
The Indian rupee spot against the US dollar end little change on Tuesday tracking fall in Asian peers and dollar demand from OMC as well foreign bank. However fall in dollar index and after jumbo rate cut by FED more tightening expected by year end support domestic currency from sharp fall.
The rupee at NSE Future 29 Oct. ended down by 2 paise at 83.92 against previous close of 83.90 and after make low of 83.89 and high of 83.92. Asian currencies weakened with the Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit down about 1% each and leading losses.
The Federal Reserve's 50 basis points cut and a slew of stimulus measures announced by China lifted Asian currencies including the rupee over September. While Dollar index register its 3rd consecutive monthly fall in Sep.
The rupee was also helped by strong inflows with overseas investors pouring nearly $11 billion in local stocks and bonds over the month, according to stock depository data, the highest net monthly inflows on record.
Growth in India's manufacturing industry cooled to an eight-month low in September as solid demand and output eased slightly, according to a business survey that also showed weaker price increases despite rising input cost inflation. The HSBC final India Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, fell to 56.5 last month from 57.5 in August, the weakest since January and slightly below expectations of 56.7. However, the reading has been above the 50-mark, which separates growth from contraction, since July 2021.
India's monsoon rainfall this year was its highest since 2020, with above-average precipitation for three consecutive months, helping the country recover from last year's drought, the state-run weather department said on Monday.
Safe haven currencies the Japanese yen and Swiss franc gained on Tuesday after news reports that Iran is preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel, while U.S. jobs data showed a resilient labor market.
Key economic releases this week that will help decide this will include the non-manufacturing report on Thursday, as well as Friday’s closely watched employment report for September.
The Japanese yen strengthened 0.1% against the U.S. dollar to 143.5. The dollar was roughly flat against the Swiss franc at 0.846, erasing earlier gains. The dollar index rose 0.4% to 101.15.
U.S. data on Tuesday showed a solid economy, as job openings unexpectedly increased in August after two straight monthly decreases, but hiring was soft and consistent with a slowing labor market.
Euro zone inflation dipped below 2% for the first time since mid-2021 in September, Eurostat data showed on Tuesday.
The market is completely pricing in a cut of at least 25 basis points at the Fed's Nov. 6-7 meeting, with a 41% chance for another outsized half-percentage-point cut, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 1.90% to $62,570.
Currency | LTP | S1 | S2 | R1 | R2 | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USDINR | 83.92 | 83.40 | 83.0 | 83.95 | 84.20 | SIDEWAYS |
FUTURE | ||||||
EURINR | 93.19 | 92.90 | 92.0 | 93.70 | 94.15 | SIDEWAYS |
FUTURE | ||||||
GBPINR | 111.80 | 111.70 | 111.30 | 112.35 | 113.0 | BULLISH |
FUTURE | ||||||
JPYINR | 58.62 | 58.30 | 57.80 | 59.30 | 60.0 | SIDEWAYS |
FUTURE |
Derivative Report
- The Nifty Index has closed negatively for three consecutive days, indicating a bearish trend.
- Since the rollover, the index has lost approximately 0.94% of its gains, with a 27.39% decrease in open interest, which suggests that many long positions are being squared off. However, 51.38% of long positions still remain open.
- Technically, the price is trading near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which coincides with the 20 EMA, signaling strong support at this level.
- On the options front, the 25800 PE holds the highest open interest with a selling bias, while the 26000 CE also has significant open interest, indicating expectations that the market will stay below 25800 as long as it trades below 26000.
- The weekly PCR is currently at 0.66, approaching oversold conditions.
- Based on this setup, short positions should be considered on rallies as long as the index trades below 26000.
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE | |
---|---|---|
NIFTY 50 | 25650/25500 | 26030/26200 |
ADVANCE | DECLINE | AD RATIO | |
---|---|---|---|
NIFTY | 21 | 29 | 0.72 |
NIFTY F&O | 100 | 85 | 1.17 |
PRICE | OI | |
---|---|---|
Near | 25969.25 | 14503875 |
Next | 26098.5 | 1107250 |
Far | 26231 | 235425 |
FIIs are currently holding 50% long and 50% short positions in the Nifty Index.
The Nifty monthly Put-Call Ratio (PCR) is currently at 1.12, indicating a tug of war between CE and PE participant.
The India VIX is consolidating between 11-15 levels, no major change in volatility is seen from past seven week.
The Highest Open Interest is seen at 25,800CE where SB is formed, whereas on the PE side 25,950 holds highest OI where LL is seen. Shift in option data at lower side from previous day is indicating some weakness.
- The banking index closed negatively for the third consecutive day. Short positions were carried over on Tuesday, indicating that participants expect a downward move ahead.
- Since the rollover, the index has lost nearly 1.33% of its uptrend, and the open interest (OI) has decreased by 26.70%, suggesting that long positions carried during the rollover are being squared off.
- From a technical perspective, the price is trading near the fast 20 EMA, which will act as a crucial support level.
- If the index trades below the EMA, it could lead to a short-term negative trend. The momentum indicator RSI is moving downward alongside the price, indicating weakness in the index
- On the derivatives front, the 53000 CE (Call Option) has the highest open interest, with a selling bias formed. Similarly, the 53000 strike on the put side also holds the highest open interest, indicating that this level will be crucial.
- The PCR (Put-Call Ratio) of 0.69 suggests that most of the activity is occurring on the call side, where a selling bias is observed.
- Based on both technical and derivative outlooks, the banking sector is trending negatively. If the price falls below 52900, it could lead to a move towards 52500, followed by 52000.
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE | |
---|---|---|
BNF | 52900/52500 | 53200/53500 |
ADVANCE | DECLINE | |
---|---|---|
BNF | 5 | 7 |
PRICE | OI | |
---|---|---|
Near | 53381.2 | 1954680 |
Next | 53689.8 | 205545 |
Far | 53994.7 | 49665 |
The current contracts held by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) at present, 45% of the contracts are long, while 55% are short.
The monthly Put-Call Ratio (PCR) for the Bank Nifty is currently 0.92, indicating a tug of war between Put and Call Participant.
The Bank Nifty IV is currently at 14.2. The IV has decrease by 0.69%. One SD as per IV is expected to be 0.89%.
The highest OI is seen at 53000 CE and PE where SB is formed which indicates this level is going to act as a crucial level.
Participant wise Future Index OI
Participant | Long | Short | Ratio |
---|---|---|---|
Client | 268540 | 444941 | 0.603540694 |
DII | 100392 | 160691 | 0.624751853 |
FII | 429647 | 111510 | 3.852990763 |
Pro | 35151 | 116588 | 0.301497581 |
Participant wise Future Stock OI
Participant | Long | Short | Ratio |
---|---|---|---|
Client | 2189002 | 278512 | 7.8596326 |
DII | 106823 | 3195728 | 0.0334268 |
FII | 2559442 | 1758864 | 1.4551677 |
Pro | 588859 | 211022 | 2.79051 |
Long Build-up
Symbol | Price | Price (Chng%) | OI (Chng%) |
---|---|---|---|
ATUL | 8072.75 | 4.16% | 25.27% |
GRANULES | 584.35 | 3.74% | 22.73% |
IGL | 563.25 | 0.09% | 19.02% |
GNFC | 706 | 3.53% | 17.38% |
TATACHEM | 1142.05 | 3.78% | 11.54% |
Short Build-up
Symbol | Price | Price (Chng%) | OI (Chng%) |
---|---|---|---|
MUTHOOTFIN | 1969.2 | -3.87% | 18.12% |
BSOFT | 598.5 | -1.43% | 11.95% |
PNB | 106.13 | -1.49% | 9.88% |
BANKNIFTY | 53381.2 | -0.10% | 7.97% |
MANAPPURAM | 198.75 | -1.90% | 7.87% |
Short Covering
Symbol | Price | Price (Chng%) | OI (Chng%) |
---|---|---|---|
BALRAMCHIN | 681.5 | 4.48% | -25.35% |
MIDCPNIFTY | 13374.2 | 0.67% | -12.23% |
HINDCOPPER | 351.35 | 1.44% | -5.61% |
PETRONET | 346.65 | 0.68% | -5.04% |
ASHOKLEY | 239.78 | 1.26% | -4.10% |
Long unwinding
Symbol | Price | Price (Chng%) | OI (Chng%) |
---|---|---|---|
IDFC | 112.2 | -1.33% | -5.22% |
MARICO | 699.35 | -0.33% | -4.39% |
BANDHANBNK | 197.04 | -1.51% | -4.35% |
TORNTPHARM | 3399.6 | -0.74% | -3.21% |
MGL | 1929.15 | -1.43% | -2.60% |
Security In Ban
BSOFT | BANDHANBNK | HINDCOPPER | RBLBANK | ||||
Market Mood
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