Daily Commodity Report

Gold Insight​: ​

Gold News​

Gold prices ended nearly unchanged on Wednesday after recovering from an intraday decline of around 1%, as softer-than-expected U.S. producer inflation data provided support despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The U.S. Producer Price Index unexpectedly fell 0.3% in June, reducing expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike and easing pressure on bullion. However, gains remained limited as renewed U.S. military strikes on Iranian targets and Iran's threats to disrupt regional energy exports kept inflation concerns elevated, while a stronger U.S. dollar continued to weigh on sentiment. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see only a 10.2% probability of a July rate hike, while the probability of a September hike remains around 75%.

Technical Overview

GOLD :Technically, MCX Gold (5th Aug contract) remains in a short-term downtrend as prices continue to trade below the 20-, 50-, and 100-day SMAs after breaking below the long-term 200-day SMA. The swing-low breakdown, accompanied by higher volumes, suggests that bears remain firmly in control. Any pullback is likely to be a technical correction, with prices expected to revisit the 136,000– 136,500 zone as long as resistance at 143,000–145,000–148,000 holds. RSI is at 39 with a flat slope, indicating continued downside bias, while the MACD remains well below the zero line with a long red histogram, reinforcing bearish momentum.

Silver Insight​​

Silver News

Silver prices declined around 1.8% on Wednesday, underperforming gold as investors remained cautious despite weaker-than-expected U.S. producer inflation data. Although the softer PPI report reduced expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike, escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, rising oil prices, and persistent concerns over inflation kept pressure on the precious metals complex. The stronger U.S. dollar and uncertainty surrounding global industrial demand also limited buying interest, leaving silver vulnerable to further volatility in the near term.

Technical levels:

SILVER: Technically, Silver opened with a gap-down but traded within the previous session's range, indicating indecision after recent weakness. Prices continue to hover near the crucial 220,000 support zone, making this level important for the short-term trend. A sustained break below 220,000 could revive selling pressure, while resistance is placed at 228,000. Until either level is breached decisively, Silver is likely to remain range-bound with a cautious undertone.

Crude Oil Insight​

Crude oil News​

Crude oil prices ended lower on Wednesday, with Brent crude slipping around 1.1% and WTI declining nearly 1%, as markets looked past fresh U.S. military strikes on Iranian targets and focused instead on improving supply conditions. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a smaller-than-expected draw of 1.7 million barrels in crude inventories, easing immediate supply concerns. Meanwhile, the latest U.S. strikes targeted Iran's coastal defence systems and missile infrastructure in an effort to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs noted that Gulf oil exports, which had recovered following the June U.S.-Iran agreement, have once again fallen below 50% of pre-war levels, highlighting that geopolitical risks continue to keep the energy market volatile.

Technical levels:

CRUDE OIL:Technically, Crude Oil in the domestic futures market is showing early signs of a trend reversal as prices have moved above the short-term 20-day SMA. However, confirmation is still awaited since prices continue to trade well below the long-term 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs, keeping the broader trend weak. Unless prices sustain above the 7,850–8,000 resistance zone, the possibility of another decline towards 6,000 remains intact. RSI is at 56 with an upward slope, indicating improving momentum, while MACD remains below the zero line, suggesting the broader bearish trend is still dominant.

Natural Gas Insight​​

Natural gas News​

Natural gas futures ended marginally higher on Wednesday as short covering and technical buying at lower levels supported prices. Despite the modest recovery, the market continues to trade below last week's sharp decline, indicating that upside momentum remains limited. The short-term bullish trend is still intact following the rebound from key technical demand zones, but mild U.S. weather forecasts, near-record domestic production, and ample supply continue to cap gains. At the same time, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are providing underlying support by sustaining concerns over potential energy supply disruptions. In the near term, natural gas is expected to remain range-bound within the broader 270–325 trading range.

Technical levels:

NATURAL GAS :Technically, Natural Gas remains in a downtrend. For any meaningful recovery, prices need to sustain above the 320–325 resistance zone, which could open the door for an advance towards 345–350. On the downside, sustained trading below 270 may drag prices towards the 255 level, while immediate resistance is placed at 290–295. RSI is near 40 with a downward slope, indicating weakness in momentum, although the MACD remains above the zero line, suggesting buying interest may emerge on sharp declines.

Base Metal Insight​​

Base Metal News​

Geopolitical developments from the US-Iran conflict continued to dominate sentiment. Fresh tit-for-tat strikes and threats around the Strait of Hormuz have renewed fears of supply disruptions for Gulf-origin aluminium (a notable share of ex-China primary supply), keeping freight, insurance, and energy cost pressures elevated despite some tanker traffic improvements earlier in the month.

Technical levels:

COPPER:Technically, Copper formed a Doji candle after its recent breakout, reflecting temporary indecision while maintaining an improved short-term technical outlook. The breakout remains valid as long as prices hold above the 1,290 support level. Immediate resistance is placed at 1,350, and a sustained move above this level could extend the ongoing recovery. The overall bias remains cautiously bullish while prices trade above the breakout zone.

ZINC: Technically, Zinc continues to consolidate following its recent breakout, with selling pressure emerging near the 380 level. Despite the pause, the broader structure remains positive, indicating that bulls are attempting to regain momentum. A sustained move above 380 could trigger the next leg of the uptrend, while immediate support is placed at 372.

ALUMINUM: Technically, Aluminium once again witnessed selling pressure near the 345 resistance after attempting to break above the previous swing high. Although short-term profit booking persists, the overall technical structure remains constructive. A sustained move above 346 could revive bullish momentum, while immediate support is placed at 339.

Nickel : Nickel has witnessed heightened volatility over the last four trading sessions, accompanied by increased volumes. Although prices recovered in the previous session, the 1,650 level continues to act as a significant resistance. Immediate support is placed at 1,560, and a sustained breakout above resistance would be required to confirm a stronger recovery.

Electricity Futures: Electricity Futures witnessed a strong follow-through session after the previous day's bullish breakout, indicating improving buying momentum. Immediate resistance is placed at 4,600, while support has shifted higher to 4,400. Sustained trading above current levels could extend the ongoing recovery in the near term.

Bulldex: The Bullion Index (Bulldex) continues to trade within a narrow range of 33,200–34,600. A decisive breakout on either side of this range is likely to trigger a sharp directional move. Until then, range-bound trading is expected to continue.

Forex Insight​

Dollar Index News​​

The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded modestly firmer overnight, hovering around 101.00–101.30 levels. The greenback drew support from safe-haven flows amid escalating Middle East uncertainties and expectations of higher-for-longer (or potentially higher) US interest rates amid sticky inflation risks and shifting Fed hike probabilities. The DXY remains elevated near recent highs around 101.80 and continues to act as a notable headwind for dollar-denominated commodities.

Technical levels:

DOLLAR INDEX :Technically, the Dollar Index (DXY) has broken below its recent consolidation range of 100.50–101.50, indicating weakening bullish momentum in the short term. The next major support is placed at 99.50, while immediate resistance is seen near 101.30. Sustained trading below the breakdown zone could extend the corrective decline, whereas a recovery above resistance may revive bullish sentiment.

Forex Insight​

USDINR News​

USDINR showed marginal firmness overnight and traded in the 95.10–95.60 zone (near recent levels around 95.20– 95.45). The rupee faced sustained pressure from the resilient dollar and elevated crude oil import costs triggered by the latest Hormuz flare-up and higher Brent prices (India imports ~85% of its oil), compounded by foreign outflows. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has remained highly proactive following its early June policy meeting (holding the repo rate steady at 5.25% with adjusted growth and inflation forecasts), with significant spot dollar sales through state-run banks, selective NDF market tightening, monitoring of large corporate dollar purchases, and supportive liquidity tools such as buy-sell swap auctions, FX hedging subsidies for FCNR(B) deposits, concessional swaps for ECBs, and tax incentives to attract foreign inflows. While the rupee has weakened notably year-to-date amid the prolonged oil supply shock and geopolitical risks, consistent RBI interventions have helped limit sharper declines, curb volatility, and support a partial recovery from recent peaks near or above 96 versus Asian peers. Domestic factors like steady foreign institutional outflows and current account concerns persist, but the pair is expected to open cautiously, closely tracking DXY movements, global risk sentiment, and any fresh US-Iran/Hormuz headlines as Indian markets begin trading.

Technical levels:

​USDINR : Technically, day trend may remain BULLISH in USDINR after approaching an important support zone of 94.1 level the next support level is placed at 93.5 level and resistance at 95.8 if that breaks then the next resistance will at 97