Gold Insight
Gold News
Gold declined 1.2% on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the
3.75%-4.00% range and signalled further increases in borrowing costs in the coming months. The decision pushed the U.S. dollar higher
and increased pressure on non-yielding bullion, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh joined the unanimous decision and reiterated the central
bank’s commitment to restoring price stability. Although gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical uncertainty
and inflation, higher interest rates reduce its appeal by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, while a stronger
dollar makes dollar-priced gold more expensive for overseas buyers. The continued prospect of tighter monetary policy therefore remains a key near-term pressure on gold.
Technical Overview
Gold: Technically, MCX Gold (5th October contract) witnessed thin volumes and a small candle, with the short-term trend turning
bearish after breaking below the 20-SMA and the previous swing low. However, the medium-term trend remains positive as the price
continues to trade above the 50- and 100-SMA. The outlook remains toward 148000–146000 as long as resistance at 153000–154500
157100 holds on the upside. A sustained move below 151000–149500 could trigger a sharp downside rally, while only a sustained move
above 157200 could lead to a sharp pullback toward higher levels. RSI at 48 with a downward slope indicates further room for downside,
while MACD remains above the zero line but is converting to a red histogram, indicating a hurdle at higher levels.
Silver Insight
Silver News
Silver fell 1.7% on Wednesday following the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75%-4.00% range and its signal that
borrowing costs could rise further in the coming months. The hawkish policy stance strengthened the U.S. dollar and weighed on non
yielding precious metals, with higher interest rates increasing the opportunity cost of holding silver and a stronger dollar making dollar
denominated silver more expensive for international buyers. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh joined the unanimous decision and reiterated the
Fed’s focus on delivering price stability. While silver can benefit from safe-haven demand during geopolitical uncertainty and inflation, the
combination of higher rates, a firmer dollar and expectations of further tightening remains a key headwind for the metal.
Technical Overview
Silver: Silver witnessed a gap-up opening but failed to sustain the upward move and subsequently traded within a narrow range. The
immediate support is placed at 230000, while resistance is seen at 237000
Crude Oil Insight
Crude Oil News
Crude oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday, with Brent futures declining 2.7% and WTI dropping 3.1%, after reports that Saudi Arabia
was offering additional crude cargoes through Oman, easing some concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. Saudi Arabia is
reportedly arranging additional crude loadings for Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers off Oman’s Sohar port, helping offset
part of the supply impact from attacks on the country’s East-West pipeline to the Red Sea. Further pressure came from U.S. inventory
data, with the EIA reporting a crude stock draw of around 640,000 barrels last week, significantly below the 1.62-million-barrel draw
expected by analysts. U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories also increased, with the rise in diesel stocks exceeding expectations.
Although supply concerns remain significant, with the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb estimated to carry roughly a quarter of
global oil supply and more than 2.6 billion barrels reportedly lost since the Iran war began, easing immediate disruption fears and
weaker-than-expected inventory draws weighed on prices.
Technical Overview
Crude Oil:Technically Crude oil in domestic future market seen in Uptrend with swing high breakout witness last week with increase in
volumes and also price sustain above short term 20 SMA, so now expect price towards 10450-10600 and Sustain above 10600 likely
towards 11000 as long Support hold at 9700-9000. Other side. RSI at 68 mark with upward slop indicates more room for upside in the
counter while cross above Zero line MACD indicates buy on dips in short term.
Natural Gas Insight
Natural Gas News
Natural gas futures declined on Wednesday, erasing their early gains while remaining within the range formed by the large candles of the
past two weeks. The overall trend continues to remain weak, pressured by ample supply, a higher-than-expected storage build,
expectations of softer cooling demand and the prevailing technical downtrend. However, the downside could be limited if weather
conditions turn extremely hot, as stronger cooling demand would increase natural gas consumption. Robust LNG exports also remain a
supportive factor and could provide additional upside momentum if export demand stays firm. For now, comfortable supply conditions
and softer demand expectations continue to keep the broader trend weak.
Technical Overview
Natural Gas: Technically Nat gas is in downtrend towards 250-240 belt as long resistance 287-290 hold, while for next up move price
need to Sustain above 275-290 resistance Swing high level and if so expect price to test 320-325/upto 345-350 belt. immediate resistance
seen at 285-290 belt. RSI near 54 mark with Upward slop indicates mix of the view and MACD below ZERO line indicates every rally seen
as selling opportunity for short term.
Base Metal Insight
Base Metal News
Copper ended higher on Wednesday, while the overall trend remains bullish, supported by supply concerns, declining warehouse inventories
and continued growth in demand from AI infrastructure, data centres, power grids and semiconductor manufacturing
Technical Overview
Copper: Technically copper seen in Uptrend and as long Support 1350 hold on down side, expect price again towards 1390-1440-1450 range in
short term. Price trading around 20-SMA indicates more room for upside. RSI at 46 with flat slop indicates more room for upside while above
zero line MACD with increasing histogram indicates more room for upside in the counter.
Zinc: Zinc end higher with increase in volumes on strong fundamentals & sustain above short term 20 SMA indicates bulls come back in
power and now if price break above 425-430 then sharp uprally expected as long Support at 410-400 hold . RSI at 57 mark with downward
slop indicates more room for downside while above Zero line MACD and increasing histogram indicates more buying seen at every dip.
Aluminium: Aluminum end almost flat from multi week high hit few days ago while swing break out witness in daily chart indicates strong
bullish momentum and now expect price towards 365-375 as long Support hold 350-345-340 down side. Other side RSI at 54 mark with
upward slop indicate more room for long while below Zero line MACD indicates more selling pressure at every rally in the counter.
Nickel: Nickel witnessed selling pressure and broke below the 1600 support level. The counter is currently seeing some buying interest
around 1560, forming lower wicks, which indicates support at these levels. Immediate resistance is seen at 1620.
Electricity Futures: Electricity futures continue to trade with a strong bullish bias and have successfully broken above the crucial ₹7,300
resistance level. As long as prices sustain above this breakout zone, the rally is likely to extend towards the ₹8,000 level. Immediate support
is now placed at ₹7000.
Bullion Index (Bulldex): BullDex has witnessed a strong bullish rally after breaking out from its base formation. The index is now heading
towards the 39,000 level, while immediate support is placed at 35,000, keeping the overall trend firmly positive.
Forex Insight
Dollar Index News
TheUSDollar Index(DXY)strengthened sharply overnight, rising above 100 (trading near 100.25–100.35)
for the first time in nearly seven weeks. The advance was driven by the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate hike
and associated hawkish signals, which reinforced expectations of tighter US monetary policy amid sticky inflation
and elevated oil prices.
Technical Overview
DXY: DXY found support near 98.5 and staged a strong recovery, once again approaching the previous swing high.
A decisive breakout above the 99.8 level and the cloud could trigger a strong bullish move in the dollar index.
Forex Insight
USDINR News
USDINR remained under pressure overnight, settling near the 95.95–96.13 zone. The rupee weakened for consecutive
sessions, tracking the stronger dollar post-Fed hike, elevated crude prices from Hormuz disruptions, and some foreign fund outflows.
RBI dollar sales helped cap losses and keep the pair relatively stable in a tight range (around 95.85–96.00 intraday in some reports),
preventing a sharper move higher. Positive domestic equity markets provided limited support. Near-term, the pair is expected to trade
in a 95.75–96.25 band, with further direction dependent on oil volatility, Fed commentary fallout, and continued central bank
intervention
Technical Overview
USDINR:- Technically, day trend may remain Bullish in USDINR after approaching an important support
zone of 94.5 level the next support level is placed at 94 level and resistance at 96 if that breaks then the next
resistance will at 97
Derivative Insight
LALIT GANESH MAHAJAN
Digitally signed by LALIT GANESH MAHAJAN
Date : 2026-09-17 09:00 +5 :30
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