Monthly Commodity Report

Bullion overview:

Gold and silver prices rose on Friday, capping a wild week that followed a historic selloff in precious metals. The nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next central bank chief last Friday triggered a surge in the dollar and a spectacular unwinding of the precious metals trade. The repercussions of the move led to extreme swings and outsized losses this week. On Thursday it halted a short-lived rally, failing to hold the $5,000/oz support level. But the climb resumed in Asian trade early this morning and has continued. The swift rebound suggests that positioning rather than macro shifts drove the overnight washout. With Chinese liquidity still abundant and the dollar broadly steady, metals remain underpinned even as volatility stays uncomfortably high. Gold’s gains on Tuesday and Wednesday were driven by elevated tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The two sides held a meeting in Oman on Friday, with Iranian foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi reportedly saying the discussions had got off to a "good start." After Warsh’s nomination last Friday sent silver to its worst day in decades, the metal bounced back nearly 11% over Tuesday and Wednesday, only to tumble about 19% on Thursday. Despite silver steadying on Friday after this roller-coaster, it was still on track for a loss of about 10% for the week.

Technical levels:

On the weekly chart, COMEX Gold remains in a structural uptrend with strong momentum, but short-term conditions are stretched. Price is trading well above the 20, 50, 100, and 200-week EMAs, and the moving averages are positively aligned (20 > 50 > 100 > 200). That alignment confirms a mature bullish trend with institutional participation. The slope of the 20- and 50-week. RSI (72) is in overbought territory on the weekly timeframe while MACD is firmly positive and widening, indicating sideways trend before bullish momentum. In MCX, gold prices are recovered gradually after steep fall in the prior week. However, prices are unable to hold above the supply zone despite a bullish trend indicating a sideways trend for the upcoming days. Gold has support at 145000 and resistance at 165000.

On the weekly chart, COMEX Silver has transitioned into a strong breakout phase after a prolonged base, but momentum is now extremely stretched. The recent move shows a near-vertical rally followed by a sharp rejection candle with a long upper wick. This signals aggressive profit booking near the recent spike high and suggests near-term exhaustion after a parabolic rise. RSI (previously above 90, now cooling toward low 60s–70s) while MACD remains positive but is flattening after a steep expansion. In MCX, trend may remain sideways with negative bias unless prices break resistance levels. Silver has resistance at 300000 and support at 220000.

Energy pack overview :

Oil prices settled higher on Friday, reversing earlier losses as traders worried that this week’s talks between the U.S. and Iran had failed to reduce the risk of a military conflict between the two countries. In overnight trading, both benchmarks fell, but during the U.S. session both Brent and WTI rose more than $1 a barrel before moderating gains toward settlement. Iran and the U.S. held negotiations via Omani mediation to try to overcome sharp differences over Tehran’s nuclear program. Iranian state TV reported in late afternoon that the talks had ended. Iran’s foreign minister said negotiators will return to their capitals for consultations, and the talks will continue. Ahead of the talks, a lack of consensus on the agenda for the meeting kept investors anxious about geopolitical risk, as Iran wanted to stick to nuclear issues, while the U.S. wanted to discuss Iran’s ballistic missiles and support for armed groups in the region. Any escalation of tension between the two nations could disrupt oil flows, since about a fifth of the world’s total consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq export most of their crude via the strait, as does fellow OPEC member Iran.

Technical levels:

On the weekly chart, NYMEX WTI Crude Oil remains in a broader downtrend, though a short-term recovery attempt is underway. Price continues to trade below the 20, 50, 100 and 200-week EMAs, and the moving averages are bearishly aligned. A descending trendline from the prior major highs is still intact, reinforcing structural weakness. The recent bounce has pushed price back toward the 20-week EMA ($64–$65 area), but it has not yet broken the sequence of lower highs on the weekly timeframe. In MCX, trend is likely to remain down until prices are crossed 6500 levels. Crude oil has resistance at 6200 and support at 5300.

NYMEX Natural Gas is trading within a broad contracting range, with volatility expanding but no confirmed long-term breakout yet. Price is oscillating between a rising long-term support trendline (currently near $3.10–$3.20) and a descending-to-flattening upper boundary extending toward the $6.50–$7.00 region. The market recently spiked sharply above $5.50–$6.00 but failed to sustain gains, producing a large upper wick — a sign of aggressive supply at higher levels. Price is now hovering around the cluster of 20/50/100/200-week EMAs, indicating a neutral-to-transitional phase rather than a trending environment. In MCX, trend is likely to remain down this week. Natural gas has resistance at 370 and support at 275.

Base metals overview:

Amid the ongoing turmoil in the commodity market, investors are left very confused. Also, two very precious metals, gold and silver, have plunged. Amidst this uncertainty and volatility, the biggest discussion in market circles is whether the 'power center' of investment has shifted. Experts suggest if you invest in commodities, then copper could be a good option during this period of upheaval. Market experts say that while gold has made investors rich in the last few years, a similar trend could be witnessed with copper. They say that copper could prove to be the 'gold' of the future. Presently, governments around the world are spending billions of dollars on renewable energy, smart power grids, and electric vehicles (EVs) to reduce carbon emissions. Copper is the backbone of all these futuristic technologies. It is no longer just an industrial metal used in factories; it has become the most modern and significant symbol of the global economic growth cycle. On the technical front, COMEX copper recently broke out above its nearly 20-year-old 'rising channel' on its weekly chart, which is strong evidence that the demand and supply dynamics of copper worldwide have fundamentally changed, and copper also appears to be moving in an upward trajectory.

Technical levels:

Copper: MCX Copper is in a strong primary uptrend, though short-term momentum has cooled after a sharp vertical rally. Price is trading well above the 20, 50, 100 and 200-week EMAs while the current consolidation above 1,200 suggests the market is attempting to form a higher base rather than reversing trend. However, further sideways trend is expected in copper this week. It has support at 1150 and resistance at 1350.

Zinc: The overall weekly trend in zinc is constructive with prices above short-term exponential moving averages (EMAs), showing positive momentum after base formation around ₹315–₹310/kg. Prices are above short-term weekly EMAs, and remaining in a range with positive bias indicating buy the dip as consolidation phase is likely to continue this week. Zinc has support at 309 and resistance at 340.

Aluminium: The weekly trend remains sideways but some accumulation activity is seen near 50-day SMA. While, weekly candles are mostly above longer moving averages, confirming the medium-term upward bias. Momentum indicators on weekly charts show the market is extended, and oscillating sideways indicating sideways trend for the upcoming days. Aluminium has support at 295 and resistance at 326.

MCX Gold:

The Comex futures gold’s implied volatility rose to 30% last week, while weekly historical volatility remained at 36%, signaling further expansion phase in volatilities. The MCX October gold option’s put/call ratio remained at 0.76, indicating a profit bookin for the upcoming days.

MCX Silver:

A mild changes in volatility skew in the option chain still supports the bullish trend in Comex silver futures. While, open interest in MCX silver is declined to 16% with moderate volume on the weekly time frame. Meanwhile, the MCX Silver put/call ratio has declined to 0.54, indicating profit booking for the upcoming days.

MCX Crude Oil:

The put–call ratio (PCR) in MCX Crude Oil rose to 1.03, while a decline in the weekly open interest suggesting profit booking. Additionally, a forward volatility skew in the option chain points to bullish bias, suggesting an uptrend in the coming days.

MCX Natural Gas:

A reverse implied volatility in the option chain suggest low buying interest at the current levels. At the same time, the put–call ratio (PCR) in MCX remained at 1.24, reflecting mild put writing and call accumulation, this combination suggests sideways price action in the near term.