Nifty and Bank Nifty Weekly Outlook from Sept 29 to Oct 3 2025

Nifty 50 Weekly Outlook

The Nifty closed the week decisively lower at 24,673.1, marking a sharp reversal from the high of 25,331.7. This bearish action has triggered a crucial Short-Term Bearish signal confirmed by the 5 and 20 DMA crossover, pushing the price below the Classic Pivot Point of 24,878. The weekly chart confirms this downturn with a large red candle, indicating a loss of short-term momentum.

Despite this immediate weakness, the foundational Medium and Long-Term trends remain Bullish, evidenced by the strong uptrend maintained by the 50, 100, and 200 DMAs, which are all positioned well below the current market price. This suggests the current decline is likely a healthy correction within a broader structural uptrend, rather than a full reversal.

Key technical indicators reflect this mixed sentiment. While the MACD remains Bullish and the RSI is neutral at 50.81, the Stochastic and Williamson %R are deeply in oversold territory (23.82 and -76.18, respectively). This oversold condition provides a technical basis for a potential snap-back rally. The low ADX (9.44) and moderate ATR (547.73) suggest the recent down move lacked strong directional conviction. The Bollinger Bands indicate mean reversion towards the 20 SMA at 24,910.

Nifty 50 Chart

Nifty 50 Technical Levels

Nifty 50 Weekly Forecast

Outlook for Next Week: The index must defend the primary support level at S1 (24,424). A breach below this point could accelerate losses toward S2 (24,175). Given the oversold readings, a relief rally to test resistance at the Pivot (24,878) and subsequently R1 (25,126) is the more probable scenario. The overall bias remains cautiously negative until the Nifty closes firmly back above the 20-period SMA.

Bank Nifty Weekly Outlook

Bank Nifty weekly chart closed at 54,417.35, well below its weekly open of 55,429.3, confirming a bearish weekly close. The index is trading below its short-term and medium-term moving averages, with the 5- and 10-period SMAs at 54,485.54 and 55,007.04 respectively, and the 20-period SMA at 55,622.26, all indicating a downtrend. The Short Term Moving Averages Crossover is bearish, signaling further weakness.

The weekly pivot point is at 54,798.22, and the close below this level suggests a bearish bias for the coming week. Key support is located at S1 (53,930.08), and a break below this could see the index fall towards S2 (53,442.82). While some indicators like MACD and ROC are bullish, RSI, CCI, and Williamson%R are all neutral or bearish, with Stochastic also signaling a bearish trend. The ADX at 18.51 indicates a weak trend, suggesting that the bearish move may lack strong momentum.

Bank Nifty Chart

Bank Nifty Technical Levels

Bank Nifty Weekly Forecast

For the next trading week, the outlook is cautious. The market is likely to remain under pressure, and a "sell-on-rise" strategy might be favoured until the index reclaims the 55,000 level. Traders should watch the S1 and S2 levels closely for potential support or a breakdown.

RA Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. You are solely responsible for conducting your research and due diligence before making financial decisions.