The Metal Behind Every EV, Solar Panel and AI Data Centre Is Running Out.

There is a metal sitting inside every electric vehicle, every solar panel, every AI data centre, and every home you have ever lived in.

You probably do not think about it much.

But right now, the people who trade it, mine it, and build with it are thinking about almost nothing else.

Copper hit an all-time high of $14,875 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange on September 10 2026. As of October 7, it is trading at approximately $14,415 per tonne. Up 16% in 2026 alone. Up nearly 48% over the last twelve months.

And the story behind that number is considerably more interesting than the number itself.

Why Copper Is Not Like Other Commodities

Most commodities go up when the economy is doing well and down when it is not.

Copper does that too, but it has a second story running underneath. A structural demand story that does not stop regardless of where the economy is in the cycle.

Think about what copper actually does.

Every kilometre of power transmission line contains tonnes of it. Every electric vehicle uses approximately three times more copper than a petrol car. Every solar farm requires copper wiring to move electricity from panel to grid. Every AI data centre with its thousands of servers and cooling infrastructure runs on heavy copper busbars and cabling.

S&P Global has said that growth in AI and defence sectors will boost copper demand by 50% by 2040. Global copper demand is rising from approximately 28 million tonnes today to more than 42 million tonnes by 2040. Data centre demand alone is expected to grow from roughly 1.1 million to 2.5 million tonnes over that span. Copper drifts higher in tech stocks

Everything that electrification requires runs on copper.

The Supply Side Is Breaking Down

Global mine output fell 1.1% in the first half of 2026, which would make this the first annual contraction in mine supply since 2017 if it holds. copper prices set record

Chile, the world's largest copper producer at roughly a quarter of global output is where much of that problem originates. A fatal rockburst at El Teniente, Codelco's flagship mine, killed six workers and halted operations. Even after partial reopening, the mine discovered dangerous seismic risks that will limit it to 3 lakh tonnes or less annually for the next five years, compared to 3.56 lakh tonnes before the incident.

The problems extend beyond Codelco. BHP's Escondida and Spence mines are facing declining ore grades, ageing infrastructure, and delayed expansion. The sulphuric acid shortage, critical for extracting copper from low-grade ores has worsened after China restricted exports to prioritise domestic fertiliser production.

Less supply. Growing demand. The classic setup for a sustained price rally.

The Trump Tariff Factor

And then there is the wildcard.

The US currently imports approximately 57% of its refined copper. China controls 40 to 60% of the world's copper-smelting capacity and owns four of the five largest refining facilities.

Trump signed an order imposing a 50% tariff on copper products and the probability of tariffs eventually hitting refined copper cathodes is rising according to Societe Generale analysts. copper price set record on lme

The result;  traders have been moving large stockpiles of copper into the US warehouses ahead of potential tariffs. Metal flowing into the US means less available everywhere else. Less availability elsewhere pushes LME prices higher.

Copper fell more than 3% in one session after Reuters reported the White House had not yet decided on refined copper tariffs showing just how much of the current price includes a tariff premium. If tariffs do not materialise some of that premium comes out. If they do prices could move considerably higher. Tariff uncertanity tests on copper price

The uncertainty itself is a market force.

What This Means for India

India is a net importer of refined copper and it is one of the fastest-growing copper consumers in the world.

India recorded over 9% growth in copper demand in 2025 driven by infrastructure expansion, renewable energy projects, construction, and consumer durables. copper price rally 2025

The cable and wire industry which accounts for roughly half of India's copper consumption is already feeling the pressure and the opportunity simultaneously.

India's cable and wire sector is expected to report revenue growth of 28 to 30% in FY27 supported by infrastructure demand and tighter global copper supplies, according to Crisil Ratings. The sector is expected to benefit from an investment pipeline of ₹10 to 12 trillion across power transmission, renewable energy, real estate, data centres, and smart meter projects. aluminium price hike effects

The Longer Story

What is happening in copper right now is not a typical commodity cycle.

It is the collision of three forces that do not cancel each other out structural demand from electrification and AI, supply constraints from ageing mines and geopolitical disruption, and tariff-driven trade flow distortions that are concentrating metal in one geography while starving others.

Copper scrap prices in India are 18 to 22% higher than they were at the start of 2025 and the reasons are the same ones driving the global rally. EVs. Renewables. Less mine output from South America.

Every EV charging network requires copper. Every solar farm requires copper. Every AI data centre requires copper. Every smart meter, every power transmission upgrade, every railway electrification project requires copper.

FAQs

Why is copper called Dr Copper?

Copper has historically been seen as a leading indicator of economic health because it is used in so many industries. When economies grow, copper demand rises. When they slow, it falls. That predictive quality earned it the informal title.

Will copper prices keep rising?

The supply problems in Chile are not a one-quarter fix. The sulphuric acid shortage won't go away quickly. And EV sales, renewable energy installations, and AI data centre buildouts are all growing, not slowing. Whether tariffs materialise or not changes the short-term price. It does not change the underlying math.

How does copper price affect Indian consumers?

Every 10% rise in copper costs increases finished cable and wire product prices by approximately 4 to 5%. Construction costs, electrical projects, and consumer durables all reflect copper price movements.

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