November 2025 Sector Outlook India: Chemicals & Real Estate

1. Executive Summary

As we enter November 2025, the Indian economy is at an interesting inflexion point. Inflation pressures are cooling, post-festival liquidity is returning to normal levels, and the government has begun pre-Budget consultations. Against this backdrop, we're seeing market sentiment gradually rotate from defensive plays into cyclical sectors that offer both earnings momentum and clear policy direction.

Two sectors stand out this month: Chemicals and Real Estate. Chemicals are benefiting from industrial recovery and stable input costs, while Real Estate continues to ride structural housing demand backed by improved financial discipline across developers. Both reflect the direction of India's economic cycle, and we expect them to attract significant attention throughout the November–January period.

2. Chemicals — Margin Recovery and Global Repositioning

November 2025 offers the most balanced operating environment for Indian chemical producers in nearly two years:

• Crude oil has settled into a $80–$ 85 range, which has significantly reduced the volatility in feedstock planning.
• After the monsoon, we're seeing restocking activity pick up across paints, fertilisers, packaging, and pharma—all major chemical consumers.
• The rupee trading between ₹83–₹84 per dollar is helping exporters stay competitive without adding import cost pressure.
• Perhaps most importantly, export order flows from Asia and Europe are showing sequential improvement after multiple quarters of weak demand.

Pre-Budget consultations in November include proposals for extending PLI benefits to downstream speciality intermediates and green-chemistry value chains. The carbon-credit framework discussions are progressing; energy-efficient plants and environment-compliant producers stand to gain once implemented.

Chemicals enter November with cost base stability, export tailwinds, and policy clarity — a combination that typically precedes an earnings upgrade cycle.

Stocks to Watch — Chemicals

• PI Industries (PIIND): PI represents India's strength in high-value agrochemicals and speciality intermediates. Their R&D capabilities and established position in global contract manufacturing make them well-placed to benefit as export markets normalise and policy support for sustainable chemistry takes shape.
• Aarti Industries (AARTIIND): Aarti sits at the heart of India's aromatics and performance chemicals value chain. We expect margin improvement as input prices stabilise and plant utilisation rates climb. Their ongoing capacity additions align well with the government's import substitution priorities.

3. Real Estate — Confidence Restored, Demand Broadens

November through January is typically the strongest quarter for residential sales in India, as Diwali optimism meets year-end decision-making. This year, the seasonal strength is being amplified by deeper structural factors: interest rates have stabilised, household incomes are rising, and bank liquidity is flowing back after the festive crunch.

The government is working on final drafts for Housing for All 2.0 and the Urban Infrastructure 2047 vision, both of which are expected to be presented in the upcoming Budget. We're also hearing that several states will announce stamp duty reforms and redevelopment incentives this quarter.

What's changed in this cycle is discipline. Developers have learned their lessons—inventory is controlled, leverage is manageable, and project execution has improved. This isn't the speculative real estate market of the past.

Stocks to Watch — Real Estate

• DLF Ltd: DLF remains the benchmark for India's organised residential and commercial real estate. Strong pre-sales momentum, healthy cash generation, and measured project launches position them to capture the ongoing urbanisation story as November sales pick up.
• Oberoi Realty Ltd: Oberoi operates in the premium residential and mixed-use space, primarily in key metropolitan areas. Low debt, strong brand value, and steady rental income streams give them both resilience and exposure to the post-festival booking wave we're expecting.

4. How These Sectors Compare This Month

• Chemicals: Industrial & export-driven; key catalysts include crude stability, export revival, and policy incentives. Transitioning from margin repair to volume growth.
• Real Estate: Domestic demand and infrastructure-led; key catalysts include post-festival sales momentum and upcoming housing policy clarity. Sustaining mid-cycle uptrends.

5. Conclusion

November 2025 feels like a shift from holding steady to moving forward. Chemical producers are regaining some pricing power as their cost structures stabilise and overseas demand returns. Real estate developers are seeing strong demand meet healthy supply discipline—something we haven't consistently had in previous cycles.

Together, these two sectors capture what's working in India right now: industrial efficiency on one side, domestic consumption aspiration on the other. As we move through the pre-Budget quarter, Chemicals and Real Estate look positioned to deliver both earnings growth and positive market sentiment heading into FY26.

-Prepared by Bigul Investments Research Desk